The Daily Write Off

Across the entire pre-merge of Survivor 49, we were given a very clear story-line.

Savannah and Rizo don’t love Jawan and Sage. They’d rather vote them out than bring them into a well functioning alliance.

If Uli had lost an immunity challenge before the merge, Jawan or Sage would have gone home.

Sage could sense this. And so too, to an extent, could Jawan. But Jawan always remained loyal to his red tribemates, and voted with them. That is, until Savannah’s close ally, Shannon, turned her back on Jawan.

Fast forward to the merge, and now Jawan and Sage are both out for blood with their newfound ally Steven, forming a new Hina majority.

They carve their own path in the game, flip the script, become the power players, and simultaneously, throw their old tribemates to the bottom of the pyramid.

Nate goes home. Suddenly, Savannah, Rizo, and Blue Sophie, who joined forces with them at the swap, are at the bottom.

Now any good alliance needs luck on their side. In the modern era (or the “new era”), that often comes in the form of advantages.

All three of Savannah, Sophie, and Rizo have some sort of advantage to work with. This is lucky.

But what isn’t all down to luck is how they managed to scrape themselves off the dust of the sandy bottom. How they managed to land themselves firmly back on top, into what is now a sure-fire winning position for one of them.

It all started at the final ten, when the merged tribe found themselves divided in two. Savannah won immunity, leaving her ally Rizo alone with four people who wanted him gone.

Rizo could have played defensively, played his idol, and gotten an opponent out of his choosing. Instead, he played on the front-foot, forging strategic gameplay conversations with Yellow Sophie, and uniting the two of them toward a common target.

Undoubtedly, he benefited in this moment from Savannah’s immunity win. Suddenly now with Savannah entering the conversation, a vote against Rizo would be a vote against both Savannah and Rizo. Suddenly that seemed like a grave prospect for Jawan and Sage. They deemed it too early to take their shot, and too risky, given that Rizo could just play his idol.

That left Yellow Sophie with no choice but to save her own self by losing an ally in M.C.

Following that vote, Sophie, Rizo and Savannah worked on their relationship with Yellow Sophie, pulling her in further and further, where she again turned on an old tribe ally, and voted out Alex.

Suddenly now, they have all the power.

Not Jawan and Sage, still playing the middle, thinking they’re in control.

No. Jawan, Savannah, and Sophie B. They have positioned themselves in a place where they hold all the power, and hold all the power secretly.

Because, Jawan and Sage still think they hold all the power.

They have the stronger relationships with Steven and Kristina. They can rock the middle. They can play around Rizo’s idol, without Rizo knowing. Yellow Sophie is still with them after all? Right? Right?

WRONG.

Because of the groundwork Rizo had done the night he was supposed to go home (or the night he was supposed to play his idol to prevent that from happening).

Because of the follow-up the three of them continued to do in building that trust with Yellow Sophie. Because of the bravado they’ve exuded in fearlessly bulldozing their way back to the top – not even needing to play advantages to carve their path, but simply using them as an empty threat.

Now we reach the final eight, and we potentially find ourselves in a deadlock. Jawan and Sage can’t afford to lose Steven, so they opt for Savannah. And as Jawan calls it, this ends up being “the wrong decision.”

And it’s almost entirely down to a misread on Yellow Sophie’s position, for the… second week in a row?! Because the Yellow Sophie train has long left the station. It’s now on the winning track with Uli to the end.

But Jawan and Sage just don’t see it. They think she’s with them.

She’s not. She wants two things:

• Rizo’s idol out of the equation.
• Steven to go.

So she tells her allies that Rizo needs to play the idol on Savannah.

But in a small way, this goes against Sophie’s true intentions.

Because now the cat’s out of the bag. Now Savannah and Rizo know that they can no longer trust Jawan and Sage, and need their revenge. Now it’s up to them to make the call.

It now has to be Jawan or Sage. So what do the trio do? They ask Yellow Sophie what to do. They put the ball in her court. They try to ensure that she knows she’s a massive part of the decision. She won’t get Steven out like she wants, but she can choose between Jawan and Sage. And she does choose. She chooses Jawan. And that’s who goes.

With Rizo’s idol still in his pocket. With Sophie’s ‘Knowledge is Power’ still in her pocket. With Savannah correctly using the extra vote. With so much flash and splash and all the “GASP! Did you do this?!” just to have the votes fall against Jawan anyway.

Masterclass.

This is one of my favourite moves in Survivor history. Because it comes together in a similar way to the famous David vs. Goliath BING on Dan. Every member of the alliance had to play their part for this to come off. They had to play their part in playing every single conversation so delicately. They had to play their part in garnering Yellow Sophie’s vote even though she should know that she’s at the bottom of the group. They had to play their part in strategically playing and not playing their advantages.

This was incredible. And I truly think that Savannah, Rizo and Sophie have formed one of the strongest alliances in the history of Survivor. I hope they make it to the final three, or that they fight to the death in taking each other out all in the name of setting themselves up for the win.

What a move, and what an episode of Survivor to ignite the flame toward the end of this season. Bye bye Jawan, and hello to one of the most strategically savvy groupings we’ve ever seen on Survivor.

Thanks for reading and see you soon!